H5N1 in U.S. dairy cattle could impose costs beyond current federal biosecurity aid, with one analysis estimating dairy-sector productivity losses of 3.4% under a current-outbreak scenario and 20.6% in a reasonable worst case. Idaho has become the center of recent U.S. livestock H5N1 activity, recording 40 dairy herd cases over the past 30 days. Australia raised poultry biosecurity after its first H5N1 detections in wild birds, while a new RSPB study found major gannet colonies in Scotland and Wales may need until at least 2041 to recover from 2022 bird flu losses.
Dairy H5N1 Losses May Outpace Federal Biosecurity Aid
A new economic analysis found that H5N1 in U.S. dairy cattle could impose costs well beyond the federal aid currently available to affected producers. In a scenario similar to the current dairy outbreak, researchers estimated domestic economic losses at 0.06% of U.S. GDP, with dairy-sector productivity down 3.4% and dairy product prices rising as much as 5.25% (Morel et al., 2026). In a reasonable worst-case scenario, losses could approach 0.9% of U.S. GDP, with dairy-sector output down 20.6% (Morel et al., 2026). The practical issue is that outbreak costs fall directly on producers through lower milk output, added controls, higher operating costs, and potential demand weakness. The study estimated that current federal subsidies cover only about 1.2% of aggregate output losses across the dairy, cattle, meat, and raw milk sectors (Morel et al., 2026). Katharina Hauck of Imperial College London said that gap may leave farmers less able to invest in added biosecurity, even though stronger surveillance and controls could reduce the risk of continued spread and broader economic damage (Penrod, 2026).
Australia Raises Poultry Biosecurity After First H5N1 Wild Bird Detections
Australia confirmed its first detections of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild birds, ending the country’s status as the only continent without the globally circulating strain. The first case involved a sick brown skua found near Esperance, in Western Australia, followed by additional detections in migratory seabirds in Western Australia and South Australia. As of late June, officials had confirmed four cases in migratory birds, with no reported infections in commercial poultry or agricultural settings (Linden, 2026). Australia’s poultry sector has moved into heightened biosecurity because any spread into farms could affect an industry valued at roughly $8 billion. Inghams, the country’s largest poultry producer, placed its Western Australia sites under lockdown, banned non-essential access to farms and processing facilities, and requested approval to keep free-range birds indoors. Federal officials said Australia has invested more than AU$113 million in avian flu preparedness, while wildlife surveillance continues along the southern coast (Pandey et al., 2026).
Idaho Becomes U.S. Dairy H5N1 Hotspot as Cases Surge
Idaho recorded 40 confirmed highly pathogenic avian influenza cases in dairy herds over the past 30 days, making it the center of recent U.S. livestock H5N1 activity. During the week of June 22–28 alone, the state reported eight new dairy herd cases and a Canyon County poultry farm outbreak involving 3,000 birds. Idaho State Veterinarian Scott Leibsle said the poultry operation was affected by a nearby dairy farm, reflecting the state’s current cattle-driven transmission pattern rather than a wild bird-driven event. Since H5N1 was first detected in U.S. cattle in March 2024, Idaho has recorded 172 affected livestock herds, second only to California’s 773. Nationally, the United States has reported 1,154 livestock herd incidents across 20 states, with all but two involving cattle. Leibsle said Idaho is considering more aggressive early surveillance next March. He described the current outbreak as an animal welfare and business continuity issue rather than a food safety problem, noting that pasteurized milk from affected cows does not pose a human health concern (Odegard, 2026).
Gannet Colonies May Need 15 Years to Recover From 2022 H5N1 Losses
Northern gannet colonies at Bass Rock, off Scotland’s east coast, and Grassholm, off the coast of Wales, may not fully recover from the 2022 H5N1 bird flu outbreak until at least 2041, according to a new RSPB study. The outbreak caused a fourfold increase in adult gannet deaths and reduced colony size by 26% at Bass Rock and 38% at Grassholm, two of the world’s largest gannet colonies. The study said the long recovery timeline reflects the loss of adult breeding birds, which are critical to colony growth. Researchers recommended reassessing the Northern gannet’s global conservation status, currently listed as “least concern” on the IUCN Red List. The findings show that H5N1’s wildlife impact can extend well beyond the initial mortality event, with affected seabird colonies facing multi-decade population effects (Hutchison, 2026).
References
Hutchison, C. (2026, July 3). UK Gannet Colonies May Take 15 Years to Recover from Bird Flu [Review of UK Gannet Colonies May Take 15 Years to Recover from Bird Flu]. BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3wylj128qlo
Linden, J. (2026, June 23). Australian Poultry Industry Responds to H5N1 Avian Flu Virus Detection. WATTPoultry.com. https://www.wattagnet.com/poultry-meat/diseases-health/avian-influenza/news/15828314/australian-poultry-industry-responds-to-h5n1-avian-flu-virus-detection
Morel, G., Pham, A., Morgenstern, C., Hicks, J. T., Rawson, T., Fan, V. Y., Edmunds, W. J., Forchini, G., & Hauck, K. (2026). An Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Could Impact the Dairy Cattle Sector and the Broader Economy in the United States. Communications Earth & Environment. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03153-9
Odegard, K. (2026, June 30). Idaho Is American Ag’s Bird Flu Hotspot. Capital Press. https://capitalpress.com/2026/06/30/idaho-is-american-ags-bird-flu-hotspot/
Pandey, R., Nivison, J., & Kirk, E. (2026, June 28). Grim Warning as $8Bn Industry Under Threat. News.com.au. https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/any-spread-of-bird-flu-to-australias-poultry-industry-could-devastate-sector-watt/news-story/94e09fd7d2f9ef92a16129c401916aa7
Penrod, E. (2026, June 24). Cost of HPAI to Dairy Farmers May Exceed US Government Aid. WATTPoultry.com. https://www.wattagnet.com/poultry-meat/diseases-health/avian-influenza/article/15828423/cost-of-hpai-to-dairy-farmers-may-exceed-us-government-aid