H5N1 avian influenza is returning forcefully, killing nearly seven million farmed birds across the United States since early September, including 1.3 million turkeys — a sharp blow to supply chains before the holidays. This fall’s resurgence comes amid a federal government shutdown, leaving the USDA and CDC with minimal staff and halting coordination with state labs. Experts warn that the virus appears to have “settled into a seasonal pattern,” signaling a new norm of recurring fall outbreaks (Anthes & Mandavilli, 2025).
Cambodia Confirms Two Human H5N1 Cases
Cambodia has reported two new human infections with H5N1 avian influenza in children from separate provinces. The first case, confirmed earlier this month, involves a 3-year-old girl from Kampong Speu Province who remains in intensive care after poultry in her household and nearby homes were found sick and dying (Wappes, 2025). Days later, health authorities confirmed a second infection in a 14-year-old girl from Takeo Province, who is also hospitalized. Both cases are tied to a reassortant strain combining Cambodia’s long-circulating 2.3.2.1e lineage with the globally dominant 2.3.4.4b virus. These detections bring Cambodia’s total to 17 H5N1 cases in 2025 (Soucheray, 2025c).
Three Major Minnesota Turkey Farms Report New H5N1 Outbreaks
Three large commercial turkey farms in south-central Minnesota have been hit by H5N1 avian influenza, affecting 30,400 birds in Kandiyohi County, 92,000 in Meeker County, and 61,000 in Stearns County. The detections mark another escalation in Minnesota’s poultry losses this fall, adding to a growing series of outbreaks across the state’s major turkey-producing regions (Soucheray, 2025b).
Turkey Supply Tightens as Flock Shrinks to 40-Year Low
A renewed wave of H5N1 infections has deepened strain on the U.S. turkey industry, with nearly 514,000 turkeys affected this month alone — most in Minnesota — and national production falling to its lowest level in four decades. USDA data show that 195 million turkeys were raised in 2025, down 3% from last year and 36% below the 1996 peak. Wholesale prices have climbed about 40% from 2024 levels to $1.32 per pound as total production is projected to drop 5% year-over-year. Industry leaders say frozen turkeys will remain widely available, though shortages of specific-size or fresh birds are possible if outbreaks intensify before Thanksgiving (Tyko, 2025).
Two New Human H9N2 Avian Flu Cases Reported in China
Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection has confirmed two additional human cases of H9N2 avian influenza in mainland China — a 2-year-old boy from Hunan Province and a 70-year-old woman from Jiangxi Province — both with symptom onset in late September. These bring China’s total to 21 H9N2 cases since April, 13 of which have occurred in children under 7. All cases reported this year have been confined to mainland China, with Hunan Province accounting for the largest share. H9N2 circulates widely in Chinese poultry, and while most human infections are mild, occasional severe cases have been documented (Soucheray, 2025).
Bird Flu Hits Six Indiana Farms Across Major Poultry Sectors
Indiana has reported six H5N1 detections since October 9, prompting state officials to quarantine multiple poultry operations across LaGrange, Elkhart, and Noble counties. The first five outbreaks involved commercial duck farms housing more than 22,700 ducks combined, including breeder and meat production facilities with flock sizes ranging from 2,600 to nearly 7,000 birds (Montgomery, 2025). A sixth case was later confirmed at a commercial egg-laying facility in LaGrange County with 19,570 hens, marking the state’s first egg-sector infection this season. These outbreaks represent Indiana’s largest wave of detections since spring. The state leads the nation in duck production and ranks among the top three for eggs and turkeys (Miller, 2025).
Egg Prices Expected to Rise Sharply as Bird Flu Follows Seasonal Pattern
Industry experts warn that H5N1’s persistent spread has created a new “seasonality” in U.S. egg prices, with spikes in late fall and winter now tied to recurring bird-flu outbreaks during wild-bird migration. After dipping below $1.20 per dozen in October — the lowest in nearly two years — prices are expected to rise through the holidays as new poultry culls disrupt supply. Analysts anticipate egg prices could double in coming months, following a pattern similar to last year’s surge when January’s mass culls pushed prices to $6 a dozen by March. Economists project an overall 24% increase in average egg prices in 2026 if current outbreak trends continue (Cockburn, 2025).
H5N1 Found to Persist in Raw-Milk Cheese for Up to 120 Days
A Nature Medicine study from Cornell University found that infectious H5N1 virus can survive in raw-milk cheese for as long as 120 days, depending on acidity. Cheeses made with milk at higher pH levels retained live virus throughout production and aging, while more acidic milk neutralized it. The findings raise new safety concerns as H5N1 continues to circulate in U.S. dairy herds. Researchers concluded that the 60-day aging rule for raw-milk cheese is insufficient and recommended added safeguards such as milk testing, pasteurization, or acidification before cheese making (Food Safety News, 2025).
Wisconsin Suspends Poultry Shows Following Record Outbreak
Wisconsin has suspended all poultry shows and bird exhibitions across Jefferson, Waukesha, Walworth, and Rock counties following a severe H5N1 outbreak that led to the culling of more than 3.5 million birds. The order, issued by the state’s Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection (DATCP), prohibits the movement of live domestic birds to any events where flocks are brought together and then dispersed. The outbreak centered in Jefferson County, where Daybreak Foods alone lost over 3 million egg-laying hens in late September and an additional 520,000 birds earlier this month (Yount, 2025).
References
Anthes, E., & Mandavilli, A. (2025, October 22). Bird Flu Is Back. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/22/health/h5n1-bird-flu.html
Cockburn, H. (2025, October 14). Experts predict egg prices will only increase — here’s why. Aol.com; AOL. https://www.aol.com/articles/bird-flu-cases-spiking-earlier-125122284.html
Food Safety News. (2025, October 13). Food Safety News. Food Safety News. https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2025/10/bird-flu-remains-active-in-cheese-made-from-raw-milk-for-120-days/
Miller, C. J. (2025, October 19). Nearly 20,000 Birds Impacted by HPAI at Egg-Layer Facility in LaGrange County | Hoosier Ag Today. Hoosieragtoday.com. https://www.hoosieragtoday.com/2025/10/19/bird-flu-commercial-egg-layer-lagrange-co/?amp=1
Montgomery, G. (2025, October 14). Bird flu outbreak leads to quarantine of 19,000 ducks at 5 Indiana farms. Indianapolis News | Indiana Weather | Indiana Traffic | WISH-TV |. https://www.wishtv.com/news/indiana-news/bird-flu-outbreak-leads-to-quarantine-of-19000-ducks-at-5-indiana-farms/
Soucheray, S. (2025a, October 14). Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. Umn.edu. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/two-new-h9n2-avian-flu-cases-reported-china
Soucheray, S. (2025b, October 15). Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. Umn.edu. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/three-large-turkey-farms-minnesota-hit-h5n1-avian-flu
Soucheray, S. (2025c, October 21). Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. CIDRAP. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/cambodia-tracks-h5n1-avain-flu-young-girl-china-sees-more-h9n2-cases
Tyko, K. (2025, October 19). Thanksgiving turkey shortage fears grow as avian flu spreads. Axios. https://www.axios.com/2025/10/19/turkey-prices-bird-flu-supply-thanksgiving-holiday
Wappes, J. (2025, October 17). Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. Umn.edu. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/quick-takes-h5n1-avian-flu-case-cambodia-new-polio-cases-4-nations
Yount, B. (2025, October 10). Wisconsin cancels poultry shows over bird flu fears. The Center Square. https://www.thecentersquare.com/wisconsin/article_30f62525-a2e5-4e5e-88df-c3484cf5ccfe.html